WIZ EXPERIMENT /// THE CONJUNCTION FALLACY
The Conjunction Fallacy
> Eight characters. Each is described in detail.
> For each one, two statements. One is simple — a single condition. The other adds an extra clause that fits the stereotype.
> Pick which is more likely.
> Math: P(A and B) is at most P(A). The compound can never be more probable than the part.
> Tversky and Kahneman (1983) found 85% of subjects pick the compound anyway. Even Stanford statistics PhDs. Your turn.
WIZ note: Every one of these vignettes is engineered to hand you a stereotype on a silver tray. The math never moves; the description gets thicker. The trick is not to refuse the stereotype — it is to notice that probability is asking about counting, not about fit.
8 vignettes · 4–6 minutes · based on Tversky and Kahneman (1983)