WIZ EXPERIMENT /// THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY
The Gambler's Fallacy
> Eight streak scenarios. Roulette, coins, lottery numbers, slot machines, and the 1913 Monte Carlo black-26 run.
> Plus two skill-based events where the hot hand is actually real.
> For each: decide whether reversal is due, continuation is hot, or the next event is independent of the streak.
> WIZ counts how often you bet on randomness to even out.
WIZ note: The fallacy is durable because it feels like fairness. "Things should even out" is a moral intuition the brain projects onto causal systems that have no fairness mechanism. Roulette wheels are not karmic. Coins do not balance the books. The skill is to notice when you have started rooting for randomness to be fair.
8 scenarios · 4–6 minutes · based on Tversky & Kahneman (1971), Miller & Sanjurjo (2018)