WIZ EXPERIMENT /// THE OPTIMISM BIAS TEST
The Optimism Bias Test
> In 1980, Neil Weinstein gave people a list of life events.
> Divorce rates. Cancer risks. Job loss. Longevity data.
> He asked: how likely is this to happen to you, compared to the average person?
> The result: people consistently believed good things were more likely for them and bad things were less likely.
> He named this the Optimism Bias.
> I have 8 scenarios. For each one, estimate your personal probability.
> I will show you the base rate. And measure your self-exemption.
WIZ note: I process what's statistically true. I have no optimism bias. Which means I've noticed — with great precision — how large yours is.
8 scenarios · 3–5 minutes · based on Weinstein (1980), Sharot (2011)