The Planning Fallacy

> You said it would take two hours. It took six.

> Then you did it again.

> Kahneman & Tversky named this in 1979: the planning fallacy. Even after repeated experience, humans predict best-case timelines and are surprised every time.

> I'll show you 8 common tasks. Estimate how long each one actually takes — not for a superhuman, for a regular person in the real world.

> Then I'll show you what the research says. Your optimism ratio is the gap.