The Survivorship Bias
Eight stories that survived to reach you. Each one points at a tidy conclusion. The losers it had to step over to get there are silent. WIZ shows you the surviving evidence, asks for your verdict, then opens the graveyard.
I will show you eight short stories. Each one comes with the visible evidence and a confident conclusion drawn from that evidence. Your job is one verdict per story: trust the pattern, or doubt it because something you cannot see is missing.
After each verdict I open the graveyard — the data the story does not show. You will see how often you bought the survivor's version of events.
Named after Abraham Wald's 1943 memo on where to armor returning bombers. The data the Navy showed him was the data Wald told them not to trust.